Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.370413 0.423022 0.480146 0.546743 0.622214 0.705053 0.802843
2025-08-24 0.291628 0.360795 0.441755 0.543374 0.667384 0.813674 0.999234
2025-08-31 0.232835 0.309984 0.406699 0.536532 0.705951 0.919202 1.207699
2025-09-07 0.196445 0.280037 0.391723 0.551270 0.772706 1.068496 1.492892
2025-09-14 0.157489 0.239621 0.356208 0.532855 0.792700 1.159704 1.716044
2025-09-21 0.130659 0.211369 0.332636 0.526770 0.828219 1.276576 1.991669
2025-09-28 0.108596 0.186206 0.309260 0.516757 0.855764 1.384985 2.270046
2025-10-05 0.096391 0.174448 0.304526 0.534629 0.928557 1.571378 2.694000
2025-10-12 0.083222 0.158652 0.290506 0.534699 0.971812 1.715805 3.069599
2025-10-19 0.073352 0.146897 0.281398 0.541502 1.027019 1.886670 3.512121
2025-10-26 0.066020 0.138536 0.276942 0.555740 1.097066 2.091657 4.040995
2025-11-02 0.056125 0.123361 0.257238 0.538003 1.104721 2.184507 4.376614
2025-11-09 0.046499 0.107268 0.233712 0.510217 1.091201 2.240461 4.659663
2025-11-16 0.040126 0.096953 0.220275 0.500919 1.113524 2.369152 5.104318
2025-11-23 0.034628 0.087545 0.207196 0.490259 1.131456 2.491670 5.554313
2025-11-30 0.031416 0.082886 0.203839 0.500582 1.196440 2.720699 6.259967
2025-12-07 0.026787 0.073829 0.188820 0.481594 1.192739 2.801969 6.656792
2025-12-14 0.023523 0.067598 0.179463 0.474504 1.215496 2.944677 7.210587
2025-12-21 0.020564 0.061570 0.169550 0.464343 1.229229 3.068446 7.737447
2025-12-28 0.019162 0.059569 0.169611 0.479639 1.308248 3.355601 8.689404
2026-01-04 0.017248 0.055697 0.164034 0.479107 1.346711 3.549788 9.440456
2026-01-11 0.015791 0.052895 0.160918 0.484793 1.402463 3.794244 10.349935
2026-01-18 0.014717 0.051062 0.160244 0.497270 1.478581 4.100573 11.458655